I did a bunch of press calls last week and they all had one question in common: Everyone wants to know if it's a good time to buy.
Our BusinessWeek article from Friday carries the theme:
Where some see despair, others see hope. Sellers, who were once clinging to boom-time expectations, are trimming asking prices. But the news isn't all bad for buyers. In fact, for some the timing couldn't be better. The lower prices—at least in some markets—are making homes affordable for first-time home buyers and more attractive for investors on the lookout for fire-sale discounts.
Prices are down so much, there must be bargains, right?
Well, yes. But don't kid yourself. Getting a steal on a great property is NOT a slam dunk.
Glenn Kelman at Redfin has an excellent post on the challenges involved with mining for bargains in short sales, foreclosures, and other distressed properties. (aside: Glenn's Redfin corporate blog is consistently cogent and entertaining. If you're at all interested in real estate or startups, you should read it.)
Some of our Wall Street clients are well-financed funds that buy distressed mortgages from the banks. In many cases they're actually taking ownership of hundreds of properties every month. Guess what. As a buyer looking for a bargain, these guys are your competition.
So what's the recipe for investing in this market?
- Be well-financed. In fact, be over-financed. Even good-credit first-timers are having trouble getting loans this spring. But if you're a well capitalized investor with a solid loan-to-value portfolio and a good relationship with your lender, you have a strategic advantage right now.
- Build insider channels. Chances are if you're only driving around on weekends, you're going to miss the deals. You'll need to augment your search with other avenues, like foreclosure auctions or even direct lender relationships, to truly capitalize on the opportunities. Kelman points out that Redfin's buyers making offers on short sale properties are only succeeding at a 15% rate. Remember that you're competing against professional investors and specialized Wall Street firms for these deals. Also know that these specialized firms don't really want to be long-term owners, so the opportunity occurs when you work directly with them.
- Do your homework. Know your market and your strategy. How are you finding the property? Where are you going to find them? Has your realtor handled many? Is she already selling some? You already know Altos for market analysis, but there are lots of excellent investment analysis websites (some marvelous Altos partners include Deedquest.com and InvestmentRiches.com, check them out.)
- Be persistent. There's no question the bargains are out there. But your bid on a short sale or foreclosure will be subject to lender approval. (Kris Berg did a great illustration of the trend San Diego.) That means if you're aiming for a bargain, some of your offers will be getting rejected. That means you'll have to keep shopping.
- Hope against large-scale bailouts. Every government deal aimed at helping owners ironically hurts buyers. You can argue right or wrong, but if you're a buyer, bailouts shrink your opportunity.
In short, bargain shopping for homes is like any bargain hunting. It takes insight and perseverance. It takes relationships. And above all it takes the financial wherewithal to capitalize when the opportunity strikes. Good luck.
