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    <title>Altos Research Real Estate Insights</title>
    <link>http://www.altosresearch.com/blog/</link>
    <description>Real Time Real Estate Research and Housing Observations</description>
    <dc:language>en</dc:language>
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        <title>RSS: Altos Research Real Estate Insights - Real Time Real Estate Research and Housing Observations</title>
        <link>http://www.altosresearch.com/blog/</link>
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<item>
    <title>Announcing AltosXplorer: Live access to the data</title>
    <link>http://www.altosresearch.com/blog/archives/378-Announcing-AltosXplorer-Live-access-to-the-data.html</link>
            <category>Altos Research</category>
            <category>clients</category>
            <category>news</category>
            <category>Real Estate Data</category>
            <category>Technology</category>
            <category>Trend Charts</category>
    
    <comments>http://www.altosresearch.com/blog/archives/378-Announcing-AltosXplorer-Live-access-to-the-data.html#comments</comments>
    <wfw:comment>http://www.altosresearch.com/blog/wfwcomment.php?cid=378</wfw:comment>

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    <author>Mike Simonsen</author>
    <content:encoded>
    &lt;br /&gt;
Over the past couple of years, we&#039;ve built our client base with realtors and investors, buyers and sellers, with appraisers and traders, with planners and researchers. &lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;During that time, our products for those folks have taken the form of either detailed analytical reports or simply raw data. Either &lt;b&gt;we&lt;/b&gt; do all the analytical work, or &lt;b&gt;you&lt;/b&gt; do it. &lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;More and more though, we found that there is a big group of people who need an easy way to &lt;b&gt;solve more unique problems&lt;/b&gt; than we can possibly address in our pre-designed local reports, but these folks have neither the time nor the experience to &lt;b&gt;sift through the mountains of real estate data&lt;/b&gt; on their own.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;We realized we needed a product that lets our clients &lt;b&gt;easily query&lt;/b&gt; the vast Altos Research database to get the &lt;b&gt;specific answers&lt;/b&gt; they need, and &lt;b&gt;use the output&lt;/b&gt; in any number of different ways. &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.altosresearch.com/altos/xplorer/XplorerInfo.page&quot; title=&quot;AltosXplorer&quot;&gt;Thus AltosXplorer was born&lt;/a&gt;.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;div class=&quot;serendipity_imageComment_center&quot; style=&quot;width: 569px;&quot;&gt;&lt;div class=&quot;serendipity_imageComment_img&quot;&gt;&lt;!-- s9ymdb:304 --&gt;&lt;img height=&quot;549&quot; width=&quot;569&quot; src=&quot;http://www.altosresearch.com/blog/uploads/xplorerp1.PNG&quot; /&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div class=&quot;serendipity_imageComment_txt&quot;&gt;AltosXplorer for live access to the mega-huge Altos Research real-time real estate data.&lt;/div&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;br /&gt;AltosXplorer is for you if you&#039;ve ever looked at our report products and said, &amp;quot;I don&#039;t need just one city, I need to be able to investigate any stat for any zip in the whole area (region, state, country).&amp;quot; Think about the investor who has opportunities that may come up anywhere in Florida, and wants to quickly compare two markets when a new deal arrives.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Or consider an appraiser who works all over Chicagoland. Any given day he needs to illustrate just a couple of key measures in a neighborhood to augment the rest of the data in his report.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;For our Realtor clients, AltosXplorer is a lot of fun too. Previously, in order to use our AltosCharts you needed to formulate a long URL to get the right chart. With AltosXplorer, you build the chart you want with just a few clicks and then click, copy and paste! (See &lt;a title=&quot;San Diego realtor&quot; href=&quot;http://sandiegohomeblog.com/2008/07/20/altos-research-continues-to-rock-and-i-dont-have-a-thing-to-wear-sunday-night-two-fer-post/&quot;&gt;Kris Berg&#039;s first foray&lt;/a&gt; for the perfect example of how AltosXplorer was intended for our Pro clients.)&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Can you tell we&#039;re giddy around here? I could go on and on but I&#039;ll wrap in a single (albeit multi-claused) sentence: &lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;b&gt;AltosXplorer is a rich internet application that enables you to do your own analysis, create your own trend AltosCharts, on our full database, and export the data to your own analysis in just a few clicks. &lt;/b&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;p /&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;a title=&quot;Real estate data&quot; href=&quot;http://www.altosresearch.com/altos/xplorer/XplorerInfo.page&quot;&gt;Learn more here&lt;/a&gt;. &lt;a title=&quot;AltosXplorer&quot; href=&quot;http://www.altosresearch.com/altos/xplorer/MyXplorer.page&quot;&gt;Try it out here&lt;/a&gt;. &lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Enjoy.&lt;/p&gt; 
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    <pubDate>Mon, 21 Jul 2008 16:53:33 -0700</pubDate>
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<item>
    <title>Fighting the Good Fight</title>
    <link>http://www.altosresearch.com/blog/archives/377-Fighting-the-Good-Fight.html</link>
            <category>House Prices</category>
            <category>Las Vegas real estate</category>
            <category>press coverage</category>
    
    <comments>http://www.altosresearch.com/blog/archives/377-Fighting-the-Good-Fight.html#comments</comments>
    <wfw:comment>http://www.altosresearch.com/blog/wfwcomment.php?cid=377</wfw:comment>

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    <author>Mike Simonsen</author>
    <content:encoded>
    &lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;p&gt;I &lt;a title=&quot;twitter&quot; href=&quot;https://twitter.com/mikesimonsen&quot;&gt;twittered&lt;/a&gt; this yesterday, but since it&#039;s possibly my &lt;a href=&quot;http://tinyurl.com/6p6qqp&quot; title=&quot;Hulk&quot;&gt;favorite press coverage&lt;/a&gt; my company has received, I figured I blog it today too. &lt;!-- s9ymdb:303 --&gt;&lt;img height=&quot;83&quot; width=&quot;110&quot; style=&quot;border: 0px none ; float: right; padding-left: 5px; padding-right: 5px;&quot; src=&quot;http://www.altosresearch.com/blog/uploads/misc/Hulkster.serendipityThumb.jpg&quot; /&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;p&gt;Apparently Hulk Hogan is getting a divorce. He needs, of course, to understand what&#039;s happening in the housing market, especially in Las Vegas where he and his soon-to-be-ex have a condo. Where does a pro-wrestler-turned-reality-tv-star turn for the best insights? Why &amp;quot;prominent research firm, Altos Research&amp;quot; of course.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;blockquote&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;p&gt;He also pointed out that Linda Bollea obtained an appraisal before his order to close on the property, and that Terry Bollea obtained his own appraisal several weeks after the order.  Terry Bollea&#039;s appraisal came in at $1,000,000 less than Linda&#039;s.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;In a statement issued late Friday, Terry Bollea&#039;s attorneys said they, &amp;quot;are gratified&amp;quot; by the ruling, adding, &amp;quot;...the sole justification for this transaction offered by Linda Bollea and her attorneys--that it is a good investment--redefines cluelessness...Nowhere is this more true than in Las Vegas, which the prominent firm Altos Research just this week called &#039;the weakest U.S. housing market.&#039;&amp;quot;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;/blockquote&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;p&gt;Glad to help, Hulkster. Glad to help.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;/p&gt; 
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    <pubDate>Thu, 17 Jul 2008 05:17:52 -0700</pubDate>
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    <title>Worst Financial Crisis Since the Great Depression</title>
    <link>http://www.altosresearch.com/blog/archives/376-Worst-Financial-Crisis-Since-the-Great-Depression.html</link>
            <category>Economics</category>
            <category>news</category>
    
    <comments>http://www.altosresearch.com/blog/archives/376-Worst-Financial-Crisis-Since-the-Great-Depression.html#comments</comments>
    <wfw:comment>http://www.altosresearch.com/blog/wfwcomment.php?cid=376</wfw:comment>

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    <author>Mike Simonsen</author>
    <content:encoded>
    &lt;br /&gt;
Longtime bear &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.rgemonitor.com/&quot; title=&quot;Roubini&quot;&gt;Nouriel Roubini&lt;/a&gt; is out today with this bit of apocalyptic, headline grabbing prognostication. Roubini, you&#039;ll remember, predicted recession for 2006 and 2007 before claiming prescience in 2008. I wish I could write him off as a perma-bear, but there&#039;s too much actual data supporting his argument. In his latest media alert, Roubini mixes some valid (and scary) points with plausible conjecture and oddly placed policy opinions (I wish he&#039;d leave out the last group, they detract from the compelling facts of the situation).&lt;p /&gt;&lt;blockquote&gt;The facts are:&lt;p /&gt;&lt;ul&gt;&lt;li&gt;Small banks have massive exposure to real estate (the average small bank has 67% of its assets in real estate) &lt;/li&gt;&lt;li&gt;Dozens of large  regional/national banks (a la IndyMac) are also bankrupt given their extreme exposure to real estate and will also go bust&lt;/li&gt;&lt;li&gt;The FDIC that &lt;b&gt;has already depleted 10% of its funds&lt;/b&gt; in the rescue of IndyMac alone&lt;/li&gt;&lt;li&gt;Losses are spreading all the way up to prime mortgages and commercial real estate; to unsecured consumer credit (credit cards, student loans, auto loans); ... to corporate bonds ... to CDSs where &lt;b&gt;$62 trillion&lt;/b&gt; of nominal protection sits on top an outstanding stock of&lt;b&gt; only $6 trillion of bonds&lt;/b&gt;&lt;/li&gt;&lt;li&gt;In a typical US recession equity prices fall by an average of 28% relative to the peak. But this is not a typical US recession; it is rather a severe one associated with a severe financial crisis&lt;/li&gt;&lt;/ul&gt;Implications of the facts:&lt;br /&gt;&lt;ul&gt;&lt;li&gt;FDIC will run out of funds and will have to be recapitalized by Congress as its insurance premia were woefully insufficient &lt;/li&gt;&lt;li&gt;The collapse of many [risk] counterparties will lead  to a systemic collapse of this market. Municipalities will go bust, hundreds of small banks, some major money center banks, the entire independent broker-dealer sector will evaporate along with $1-$2 trillion of credit losses.&lt;/li&gt;&lt;li&gt;Equity prices will fall by about 40% relative to their peak. So, we are only &lt;b&gt;barely mid-way in the meltdown&lt;/b&gt; of stock markets.&lt;/li&gt;&lt;li&gt;Leaving aside the risk of a collapse of the US dollar given this easier monetary policy the &lt;b&gt;Fed Funds rate may end up being closer to 0% &lt;/b&gt;than 1% by the end of this financial disaster&lt;/li&gt;&lt;li&gt;The rest of the world is in for the pain too and as a result, energy and commodity prices will fall 20 to 30% from their recent bubbly peaks.&lt;/li&gt;&lt;/ul&gt;&lt;/blockquote&gt;Dire stuff indeed. The skeptic in me can&#039;t help but ask why, in a severe global recession and with the subtraction of trillions of dollars of leverage, commodities that are up 500% in a few years would only pull pack 30%.   
    </content:encoded>

    <pubDate>Tue, 15 Jul 2008 12:21:02 -0700</pubDate>
    <guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.altosresearch.com/blog/archives/376-guid.html</guid>
    
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<item>
    <title>Geotagging microformats and the semantic web</title>
    <link>http://www.altosresearch.com/blog/archives/375-Geotagging-microformats-and-the-semantic-web.html</link>
            <category>Technology</category>
    
    <comments>http://www.altosresearch.com/blog/archives/375-Geotagging-microformats-and-the-semantic-web.html#comments</comments>
    <wfw:comment>http://www.altosresearch.com/blog/wfwcomment.php?cid=375</wfw:comment>

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    <author>Jason Buberel</author>
    <content:encoded>
    &lt;p&gt;Earlier this week, we released an update to our Free Research pages (such as &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.altosresearch.com/research/CA/SAN+JOSE&quot;&gt;San Jose, CA&lt;/a&gt;) enabling support for two emerging different geographic information standards. Both standards are described &lt;a href=&quot;http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geotagging&quot;&gt;in this Wikipedia article on Geotagging&lt;/a&gt;. Although these changes are not directly user-visible, if you View Source on any of our research pages you see two interesting bits.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;p&gt;In the &amp;lt;head&amp;gt; section of the page we now have meta tags that implement the GeoURL or &#039;Geo-Tag&#039; standard:&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;pre&gt;&amp;lt;meta name=&amp;quot;DC.title&amp;quot; content=&amp;quot;SAN JOSE, CA real estate market data&amp;quot; /&amp;gt;&lt;br /&gt;
&amp;lt;meta name=&amp;quot;geo.region&amp;quot; content=&amp;quot;US-CA&amp;quot; /&amp;gt;&lt;br /&gt;
&amp;lt;meta name=&amp;quot;geo.placename&amp;quot; content=&amp;quot;SAN JOSE&amp;quot; /&amp;gt;&lt;br /&gt;
&amp;lt;meta name=&amp;quot;geo.position&amp;quot; content=&amp;quot;37.335278;-121.893889&amp;quot; /&amp;gt;&lt;br /&gt;
&amp;lt;meta name=&amp;quot;ICBM&amp;quot; content=&amp;quot;37.335278, -121.893889&amp;quot; /&amp;gt;&lt;/pre&gt;&lt;br /&gt;
If you are considering adding these to your own pages, I would recommend using Helmet Karger&#039;s &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.geo-tag.de/generator/en.html&quot;&gt;Geo-Tag Generator&lt;/a&gt; to help get you started.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;p&gt;A bit further down the page in the &amp;lt;body&amp;gt; section, you will see the geo microformat code:&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;pre&gt;&amp;lt;div class=&amp;quot;geo&amp;quot;&amp;gt;&lt;br /&gt;
&amp;lt;abbr class=&amp;quot;latitude&amp;quot; title=&amp;quot;33.942778&amp;quot;&amp;gt;N 33&amp;deg;56&#039; 34.000799999989226&amp;quot; &amp;lt;/abbr&amp;gt;&lt;br /&gt;
&amp;lt;abbr class=&amp;quot;longitude&amp;quot; title=&amp;quot;-113.173333&amp;quot;&amp;gt;W 113&amp;deg;10&#039; 23.998799999998255&amp;quot; &amp;lt;/abbr&amp;gt;&lt;br /&gt;
&amp;lt;/div&amp;gt;&lt;/pre&gt;&lt;br /&gt;
Although search engine support for these data formats is only starting to take shape, some popular websites are joining the bandwagon. Flickr, for example, now includes the geo microformat for any image uploaded that included GPS coordinates in the EXIF data. If all goes well, you just might find a link to one of our city research pages on your next Google Maps search results.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;p&gt;And to do our part in evangelizing these data formats, I just added mini graphical badges to the page to indicate our support:&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;/p&gt;&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;img src=&quot;http://www.geo-tag.de/icon/geotag_3.png&quot; alt=&quot;geo-tag.de&quot;/&gt;&lt;img src=&quot;http://i.geourl.org/80x15/simple.png&quot; alt=&quot;GeoURL&quot;/&gt;&lt;img src=&quot;http://rbach.priv.at/2006/buttons/geo.png&quot; alt=&quot;geo microformat&quot;/&gt;&lt;/p&gt; 
    </content:encoded>

    <pubDate>Mon, 14 Jul 2008 15:45:40 -0700</pubDate>
    <guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.altosresearch.com/blog/archives/375-guid.html</guid>
    
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<item>
    <title>Quick and Cogent Analysis on Freddie and Fannie Fallout</title>
    <link>http://www.altosresearch.com/blog/archives/374-Quick-and-Cogent-Analysis-on-Freddie-and-Fannie-Fallout.html</link>
            <category>Economics</category>
            <category>Mortgage and Lending</category>
            <category>news</category>
    
    <comments>http://www.altosresearch.com/blog/archives/374-Quick-and-Cogent-Analysis-on-Freddie-and-Fannie-Fallout.html#comments</comments>
    <wfw:comment>http://www.altosresearch.com/blog/wfwcomment.php?cid=374</wfw:comment>

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    <author>Mike Simonsen</author>
    <content:encoded>
    &lt;br /&gt;
&lt;p&gt;I always appreciate Brad Inman&#039;s perspective as a consummate real estate insider who is without obligation to cheerlead (like, ahem, &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.realtor.org/research/commentary_fannie_freddie&quot; title=&quot;cheerleader&quot;&gt;some&lt;/a&gt;) and an entrenched market leader with the cojones to embrace change. Brad &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.inman.com/opinion/guest-perspective/2008/07/11/imagine-housing-without-a-secondary-market&quot; title=&quot;Inman fallout&quot;&gt;nails it today&lt;/a&gt; with 10 predictions for the next phase of the housing bubble burst. Here&#039;s a few:&lt;/p&gt;&lt;blockquote&gt;&lt;ul&gt;&lt;li&gt;Exotic loans of any kind will be completely out of favor,  leaving many borrowers and many properties unfundable.&lt;/li&gt;&lt;li&gt;Home sellers will become active lenders, but only those  who have equity. Seller financing will help some transactions.&lt;/li&gt;&lt;li&gt;Second homes, expensive houses and certain types of  investment property will be penalized and difficult to fund.&lt;/li&gt;&lt;/ul&gt;&lt;/blockquote&gt;Read the &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.inman.com/opinion/guest-perspective/2008/07/11/imagine-housing-without-a-secondary-market&quot; title=&quot;Inman&quot;&gt;whole piece&lt;/a&gt;.&lt;br /&gt;  &lt;blockquote&gt;&lt;p /&gt;&lt;/blockquote&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;/p&gt; 
    </content:encoded>

    <pubDate>Fri, 11 Jul 2008 12:47:39 -0700</pubDate>
    <guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.altosresearch.com/blog/archives/374-guid.html</guid>
    
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    <title>Stockton: where 3 of 4 homes are on path to foreclosure.</title>
    <link>http://www.altosresearch.com/blog/archives/373-Stockton-where-3-of-4-homes-are-on-path-to-foreclosure..html</link>
            <category>California real estate</category>
            <category>Housing Bubble</category>
            <category>Real Estate Data</category>
            <category>Trend Charts</category>
    
    <comments>http://www.altosresearch.com/blog/archives/373-Stockton-where-3-of-4-homes-are-on-path-to-foreclosure..html#comments</comments>
    <wfw:comment>http://www.altosresearch.com/blog/wfwcomment.php?cid=373</wfw:comment>

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    <author>Mike Simonsen</author>
    <content:encoded>
    &lt;br /&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Oh my.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p /&gt;&lt;div class=&quot;serendipity_imageComment_left&quot; style=&quot;width: 480px;&quot;&gt;&lt;div class=&quot;serendipity_imageComment_img&quot;&gt;&lt;!-- s9ymdb:302 --&gt;&lt;img height=&quot;320&quot; width=&quot;480&quot; src=&quot;http://www.altosresearch.com/blog/uploads/charts/stockton.png&quot; /&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div class=&quot;serendipity_imageComment_txt&quot;&gt;Single family home prices in Stockton, CA. Real estate data as of July 4 2008.&lt;/div&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;/p&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Three of four homes for sale in Stockton are in- or on the path to- foreclosure.  
    </content:encoded>

    <pubDate>Fri, 11 Jul 2008 09:46:24 -0700</pubDate>
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    <title>RateSpeed.com is Really Useful</title>
    <link>http://www.altosresearch.com/blog/archives/372-RateSpeed.com-is-Really-Useful.html</link>
            <category>Mortgage and Lending</category>
            <category>news</category>
            <category>Technology</category>
    
    <comments>http://www.altosresearch.com/blog/archives/372-RateSpeed.com-is-Really-Useful.html#comments</comments>
    <wfw:comment>http://www.altosresearch.com/blog/wfwcomment.php?cid=372</wfw:comment>

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    <author>Mike Simonsen</author>
    <content:encoded>
    &lt;br /&gt;
My friend Jeff, &lt;a title=&quot;xbroker&quot; href=&quot;http://thexbroker.com/&quot;&gt;the Xbroker&lt;/a&gt;, finally launched &lt;a href=&quot;http://ratespeed.com/&quot; title=&quot;Ratespeed&quot;&gt;RateSpeed.com&lt;/a&gt; a couple weeks ago. This is a project he&#039;s been working on for several years, a personal crusade to clean up the mortgage brokering business. Jeff gave me a demo the last month, and I&#039;ve since referred multiple people-real, live home buyers and re-financers, to the site. I&#039;ve been meaning to blog about the site for a while, and I&#039;m now here to say, RateSpeed rocks. The site is incredibly useful for finding &lt;a href=&quot;http://ratespeed.com/&quot; title=&quot;Ratespeed&quot;&gt;current mortgage rates&lt;/a&gt; and understanding what they cost. &lt;div style=&quot;width: 415px;&quot; class=&quot;serendipity_imageComment_center&quot;&gt;&lt;div class=&quot;serendipity_imageComment_img&quot;&gt;&lt;!-- s9ymdb:301 --&gt;&lt;img height=&quot;294&quot; width=&quot;415&quot; src=&quot;http://www.altosresearch.com/blog/uploads/charts/ratespeed.JPG&quot; /&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div class=&quot;serendipity_imageComment_txt&quot;&gt;RateSpeed.com shows you every fee and cost associated with each loan option.&lt;/div&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;br /&gt;
RateSpeed&#039;s model is very simple: they source mortgage rate data from tons of originators, and feed that information back to you. They&#039;ve done it with three characteristics shockingly rare in the mortgage world.&lt;p /&gt;&lt;ol&gt;&lt;li&gt;You don&#039;t have to give up anything but &lt;b&gt;an email address&lt;/b&gt;.&lt;/li&gt;&lt;li&gt;Any RateSpeed affiliate broker has to &lt;b&gt;fix and publish their fees&lt;/b&gt;. The system doesn&#039;t allow for the-no-fees-but-we-gouge-you-on-the-rate-spread and other opaque pricing nastiness the industry is so famous for. What you see is what you get.&lt;/li&gt;&lt;li&gt;The presentation of available mortgage products each with their costs and benefits is so straightforward, you can actually be &lt;b&gt;making informed mortgage decisions in just a few seconds&lt;/b&gt;.&lt;/li&gt;&lt;/ol&gt;&lt;p&gt;RateSpeed licenses the platform to mortgage brokers. In exchange, Brokers get an incredibly powerful marketing tool for their site - if I&#039;m any gauge, consumers will gladly give up an email address to see the most current rates and a real, transparent picture of costs. &lt;br /&gt; &lt;br /&gt;How cool is that?&lt;/p&gt; 
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    <pubDate>Tue, 08 Jul 2008 11:46:00 -0700</pubDate>
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    <title>National Real Estate Prices Down 0.5% in June</title>
    <link>http://www.altosresearch.com/blog/archives/371-National-Real-Estate-Prices-Down-0.5%25-in-June.html</link>
            <category>press coverage</category>
            <category>Real Estate Data</category>
            <category>Real Estate Market</category>
            <category>Real Estate Prices</category>
            <category>real estate research</category>
            <category>Real Estate Trends</category>
    
    <comments>http://www.altosresearch.com/blog/archives/371-National-Real-Estate-Prices-Down-0.5%25-in-June.html#comments</comments>
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    <author>Mike Simonsen</author>
    <content:encoded>
    &lt;br /&gt;
We released our &lt;a title=&quot;National housing market report&quot; href=&quot;http://www.altosresearch.com/customer/Altos_Research_National_Report.pdf&quot;&gt;National Real Estate Report&lt;/a&gt; today. Here&#039;s the press release.&lt;p /&gt;&lt;blockquote&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;b&gt;&lt;font size=&quot;3&quot;&gt;Real Estate Report: Housing Prices Down By 0.5% in June&lt;/font&gt;&lt;/b&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;b&gt;Report measures current real estate data in major markets around the country. Data shows Las Vegas the weakest US housing market with real estate prices down 3.6% in June. Current real estate data shows Denver the strongest US housing market in June with prices up fractionally over May 2008.&lt;/b&gt;&lt;br /&gt;MOUNTAIN VIEW, CA July 8, 2008 - he Altos 10-City Composite Price Index showed a decline in asking prices of 0.5% in June and 0.8% for the past three months. Prices of properties listed for-sale increased in 15 of 26 major markets according to the Real-Time Real Estate Report, published by Altos Research, the premier source for real-time real estate data, and market analysis consultancy Real IQ.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Asking prices fell at the fastest rate in Las Vegas - down 3.6% during June - and 7.2% over the most recent three-month period. This is the third consecutive month that Las Vegas has held that dubious honor. Listing prices rose at the fastest rate in Denver - up 2.6% in June and 6.4% over the most recent three-month period.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&amp;quot;While the Composite Index continues to show price declines, the rate of decline has slowed recently and more than half of the markets we track are showing sequential asking price increases over the past three months,&amp;quot; said Stephen Bedikian, partner and research director for Real IQ. &amp;quot;Housing markets are local, and this downturn remains largely confined to specific geographic areas of the country with four states in particularly bad shape: California, Florida, Nevada and Arizona.&amp;quot;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Listed property inventories increased substantially with the 10-City Composite markets showing an increase of 5.7% during the past three months and 1.9% in June. Inventory rose in 17 of 26 markets with the largest jumps in Los Angeles and San Diego, up 8.7% and 6.1% respectively in June.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Data in the Real-Time Housing Market Report is based on analysis of over one million properties currently listed for-sale in 26 metropolitan markets across the country. The report is the most timely source of housing market data on current market activity.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;For the Altos 10-City Composite, the average days-on-market was 109, a slight increase from 106 in May. Eleven of 26 markets had an average days-on-market of over 100. By far, the market with the slowest rate of inventory was Miami at an average of 154 days-on-market. Austin led all markets with the fastest rate of inventory turnover at an average of 72 days-on-market.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&amp;quot;Inventory continues to increase which is typical during the seasonally strong spring and summer seasons,&amp;quot; said Michael Simonsen, CEO and co-founder of Altos Research. &amp;quot;The true test will come in the fall when the market experiences seasonal weakness. If inventory, especially foreclosure listings, piles up too quickly, prices may start declining broadly again.&amp;quot;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;The report examines housing pricing, inventory levels and market conditions in 31 major U.S. metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs): Atlanta, Austin, Boston, Charlotte, Chicago, Cleveland, Dallas, Denver, Detroit, Houston, Indianapolis, Las Vegas, Los Angeles, Miami, Minneapolis, New York, Phoenix, Portland, Salt Lake City, San Diego, San Francisco, San Jose, Seattle, Tampa, and Washington, DC. The first report was published December 7, 2007 and is released every month. Report downloads are available at: www.altosresearch.com.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;/blockquote&gt; 
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    <pubDate>Mon, 07 Jul 2008 21:26:08 -0700</pubDate>
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    <title>Inman Connect and RE Bar Camp in July</title>
    <link>http://www.altosresearch.com/blog/archives/370-Inman-Connect-and-RE-Bar-Camp-in-July.html</link>
            <category>Altos Research</category>
            <category>clients</category>
            <category>fun</category>
            <category>news</category>
            <category>Technology</category>
    
    <comments>http://www.altosresearch.com/blog/archives/370-Inman-Connect-and-RE-Bar-Camp-in-July.html#comments</comments>
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    <author>Mike Simonsen</author>
    <content:encoded>
    &lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
A couple of events coming up at the end of July:&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;We&#039;ll be at the &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.inman.com/events/real-estate-connect-san-francisco-2008&quot; title=&quot;Inman Connect&quot;&gt;Inman Connect conference&lt;/a&gt; in San Francisco for the week of July&lt;!-- s9ymdb:299 --&gt;&lt;img height=&quot;50&quot; width=&quot;300&quot; src=&quot;http://www.altosresearch.com/blog/uploads/charts/600x100_SF_graphic.jpg&quot; style=&quot;border: 0px none ; float: left; padding-left: 5px; padding-right: 5px;&quot; /&gt; 23-25. I&#039;ll be speaking in the blogging session on &amp;quot;Content That Hooks Readers&amp;quot; which, if you read this blog, you&#039;ll know I&#039;m woefully under-qualified for. The good news is that the session is hosted by &lt;a href=&quot;http://sandiegohomeblog.com/&quot; title=&quot;Kris Berg&quot;&gt;Kris Berg&lt;/a&gt;, and includes the inimitable &lt;a href=&quot;http://thexbroker.com/&quot; title=&quot;Jeff Corbett&quot;&gt;Jeff Corbett&lt;/a&gt;, &lt;a href=&quot;http://agentgenius.com/?author=1&quot; title=&quot;Benn Rosales&quot;&gt;Benn Rosales&lt;/a&gt;, &lt;a href=&quot;http://varbuzz.com/author/ben/&quot; title=&quot;Ben Martin&quot;&gt;Ben Martin&lt;/a&gt;, and &lt;a href=&quot;http://sf.curbed.com/&quot; title=&quot;Sarah Hromack&quot;&gt;Sarah Hromack&lt;/a&gt;.&lt;!-- s9ymdb:299 --&gt; Heavy hitters all. You&#039;re bound to learn &lt;i&gt;something&lt;/i&gt;.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;We&#039;ve ponied up for a (gasp) sponsorship this time. Make sure you come by and help us pretend it&#039;s worth the investment. &lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;The preceding Tuesday July 22 is the &lt;a title=&quot;Re Bar Camp&quot; href=&quot;http://rebarcamp.com/&quot;&gt;Real Estate BarCamp&lt;/a&gt; - conveniently also in San Francisco. Which, when shortened to REBarCamp it sounds like a concrete conference, I know, but I assure you it&#039;ll be more compelling. &lt;!-- s9ymdb:300 --&gt;&lt;img height=&quot;52&quot; width=&quot;200&quot; style=&quot;border: 0px none ; float: right; padding-left: 5px; padding-right: 5px;&quot; src=&quot;http://www.altosresearch.com/blog/uploads/charts/barcamp_badge.png&quot; /&gt;At a BarCamp the attendees get to create the conference on the fly - presenting content that you think others care about and interacting with those who know stuff you want to learn. I&#039;ve been to a few bar-camps including the proto-&lt;a title=&quot;Foo camp&quot; href=&quot;http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foo_Camp&quot;&gt;FOO Camp&lt;/a&gt; last year and they&#039;re always a super enjoyable experience.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Scott and I thought we&#039;d bring some Altos Research technology goodies to share with our partners and anyone else who wants to learn how to maximize all the Altos products.  So if you&#039;re on your way to San Francisco for the Inman conference, stretch a day earlier and come for the BarCamp. &lt;!-- s9ymdb:300 --&gt; 
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    <pubDate>Thu, 03 Jul 2008 05:58:30 -0700</pubDate>
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    <title>Rock On Chicago</title>
    <link>http://www.altosresearch.com/blog/archives/369-Rock-On-Chicago.html</link>
            <category>Chicago Illinois Real Estate</category>
            <category>Housing and Real Estate Trends</category>
            <category>Housing Market Projections</category>
            <category>Real Estate Data</category>
            <category>Supply and Demand</category>
            <category>Trend Charts</category>
    
    <comments>http://www.altosresearch.com/blog/archives/369-Rock-On-Chicago.html#comments</comments>
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    <author>Mike Simonsen</author>
    <content:encoded>
    &lt;br /&gt;
Yesterday I &lt;a title=&quot;Chicago laws&quot; href=&quot;http://www.altosresearch.com/blog/archives/368-Chicago-City-of-Broad-Strictures.html&quot;&gt;wrote&lt;/a&gt; about Chicago&#039;s dubious distinction as the most socially regulated city in the US. I argue that trend does not bode well for the creative class, the city&#039;s future prosperity and ultimately its real estate values over the long haul. However today I came across a glowing article on &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.fastcompany.com/magazine/126/us-city-of-the-year-chicago-soul.html&quot; title=&quot;Fast Company&quot;&gt;Chicago in Fast Company&lt;/a&gt;, calling it &amp;quot;City of the Year&amp;quot;. Indeed it&#039;s a city I love, so let&#039;s look at the positives.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Fast Company lauds some of the city&#039;s social restrictions as forward thinking &amp;quot;Greening&amp;quot; efforts. (Ironically they also posit that the city&#039;s position as anchor of 20th century architecture happened here because there was &amp;quot;no one to tell [the developers] to do it differently.&amp;quot;)&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;b&gt;Construction Booms&lt;/b&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Most of what FC is happy about though derives from, Chicago&#039;s marvelous growth spurt. The city is the fastest-growing non-Sun Belt city in the US. The economy is growing faster than New York or LA. Immigration remains strong from all over the world. &lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;div class=&quot;serendipity_imageComment_right&quot; style=&quot;width: 311px;&quot;&gt;&lt;div class=&quot;serendipity_imageComment_img&quot;&gt;&lt;!-- s9ymdb:298 --&gt;&lt;img height=&quot;223&quot; width=&quot;311&quot; src=&quot;http://www.altosresearch.com/blog/uploads/charts/spire.JPG&quot; /&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div class=&quot;serendipity_imageComment_txt&quot;&gt;The Chicago Spire&lt;/div&gt;&lt;/div&gt;While highrise condo development has slowed from it&#039;s frenzied pace a few years ago, I&#039;m still excited about the Chicago&#039;s recent construction boom. The famed skyline is remains one of the most moving in the world. And its development continues. (I highly recommend the &lt;a title=&quot;CAF boat tour&quot; href=&quot;http://www.architecture.org/tour_view.aspx?TourID=8&quot;&gt;Chicago Architecture Foundation&#039;s boat tour&lt;/a&gt; if you have 90 minutes to spare while you&#039;re in town.) Between the 150-story &lt;a title=&quot;Spire&quot; href=&quot;http://www.thechicagospire.com/&quot;&gt;Chicago Spire&lt;/a&gt; and the new &lt;a title=&quot;Trump chicago&quot; href=&quot;http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trump_International_Hotel_and_Tower_(Chicago)&quot;&gt;Trump tower&lt;/a&gt; (who let him in there?) the city will remain on the forefront of skyscraper architecture. &lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;With all this development, it&#039;s worth a look to see how the downtown Chicago condo market is holding up. Here&#039;s a handful of zip codes:&lt;br /&gt;&lt;div class=&quot;serendipity_imageComment_center&quot; style=&quot;width: 480px;&quot;&gt;&lt;div class=&quot;serendipity_imageComment_img&quot;&gt;&lt;!-- s9ymdb:297 --&gt;&lt;img height=&quot;320&quot; width=&quot;480&quot; src=&quot;http://www.altosresearch.com/blog/uploads/charts/chicagocondos.png&quot; /&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div class=&quot;serendipity_imageComment_txt&quot;&gt;Price trends for condominiums in Chicago&#039;s West Loop and Near North neighborhoods. Data as of June 27 2008&lt;/div&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Let&#039;s look at demand rates also.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;div class=&quot;serendipity_imageComment_center&quot; style=&quot;width: 480px;&quot;&gt;&lt;div class=&quot;serendipity_imageComment_img&quot;&gt;&lt;!-- s9ymdb:296 --&gt;&lt;img height=&quot;320&quot; width=&quot;480&quot; src=&quot;http://www.altosresearch.com/blog/uploads/charts/chicagocondoDoms.png&quot; /&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div class=&quot;serendipity_imageComment_txt&quot;&gt;Days on Market trends for select zip codes in Chicago. Condo data as of June 27 2008&lt;/div&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Like much of the country, the most desirable parts of town have (those with the higher prices already) show reasonably consistent demand and stable prices. This is not the case as you leave the hot neighborhoods.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;So what&#039;s in store for the City? Construction, investment, and immigration warm my heart. Laws to dictate my diet chill me to the bone. The good news is that buildings last a long time. Bad laws can be as ephemeral as the foie gras they&#039;re restricting. Let&#039;s call this one a net positive.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;p&gt;Rock on Chicago.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Link: &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.altosresearch.com/research/IL/CHICAGO/&quot; title=&quot;Chicago Real Estate Data&quot;&gt;Chicago Real Estate Data&lt;/a&gt; 
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    <pubDate>Mon, 30 Jun 2008 09:30:29 -0700</pubDate>
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    <title>Chicago: City of Broad Strictures</title>
    <link>http://www.altosresearch.com/blog/archives/368-Chicago-City-of-Broad-Strictures.html</link>
            <category>Chicago Illinois Real Estate</category>
            <category>news</category>
    
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    <author>Mike Simonsen</author>
    <content:encoded>
    An eye-opening &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/opinion/chi-chicago-sin-perspective,0,1437711.story&quot; title=&quot;Chicago restricts&quot;&gt;piece &lt;/a&gt;in today&#039;s Chicago Tribune today highlighting a recent Reason Magazine study that ranked the 35 biggest US on their propensity for laws restricting personal freedoms: alcohol, tobacco, food, sex, movement, gambling, guns, and a few idiosyncratic others.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;The study reveals Chicago to be a stagnant brew of blue-state for-your-own-good paternalism and red-state moralism: the most governmentally controlling city in the country. And, as the article puts it, &amp;quot;it wasn&#039;t even close.&amp;quot;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Maybe it&#039;s a stretch to tie this disheartening trend into the real estate market, but let me try: It&#039;s about where people want to live. &lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;American cities have enjoyed a nearly two decades of prosperity and revitalization. They have done so as people (generally young people) sought a rebound from the stifling banality of American Suburbia. Cities bring depth and texture, excitement and engagement, grit and opportunity. These laws are designed to smooth out the very grit that people seek. &lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;The legal activism that seeks a protective climate suitable for everyone&#039;s comfort-level winds up with a harsh climate tolerable by none. &lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;No city is immune of course. San Francisco is incredibly nosy about what you eat, live, and move, but is ok if you like to partake in recreational drugs. Louisville may not like your bedroom practices, but a bourbon and a concealed weapon make for a good party anyway. Chicago just can&#039;t make up it&#039;s mind so Richie Daly steamrolls everyone.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;The impact on housing prices is a long term one. Over time, these personal nuances are the underpinnings of a city&#039;s desirability for the next generation of creators, builders, innovators. These freedoms are what people seek cities for. Restrict at your peril.&lt;br /&gt;
 
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    <pubDate>Sun, 29 Jun 2008 10:29:47 -0700</pubDate>
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    <title>Spring-Time Bounce for the San Francisco MSA?</title>
    <link>http://www.altosresearch.com/blog/archives/367-Spring-Time-Bounce-for-the-San-Francisco-MSA.html</link>
            <category>Housing Market Projections</category>
    
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    <author>Scott Sambucci</author>
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    &lt;br /&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The April 2008 Case-Shiller Home Price Index was released yesterday.  Just for fun, let&#039;s look at the San Francisco-Bay Area MSA (symbol: SFXR) using CSI data vs. Altos Research data.  Using April 2008 numbers, San Francisco has been in a continuing decline since January 2007.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p /&gt;&lt;p /&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;!-- s9ymdb:293 --&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;!-- s9ymdb:293 --&gt;&lt;img width=&quot;458&quot; height=&quot;311&quot; src=&quot;http://www.altosresearch.com/blog/uploads/charts/SF-BayAreaCSI.JPG&quot; style=&quot;border: 0px none ; padding-left: 5px; padding-right: 5px;&quot; /&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p /&gt;&lt;p /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;p&gt;While it&#039;s interesting to look back to the early Spring to see what happened in the residential market, Altos Research prefers to show what&#039;s happening right now in the market. &lt;br /&gt;  &lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;div align=&quot;center&quot;&gt;&lt;img src=&quot;http://charts.altosresearch.com/AltosZRCharts/price/san-francisco-oakland-fremont-msa/a/a/sf/i/z/552.png&quot; /&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;p /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;p&gt;Looking at an AltosCharts tracking real-time ask prices shows that there&#039;s been a recent uptick of about 8% since late March into June, then flattening a touch in June.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p /&gt;&lt;p /&gt;&lt;p align=&quot;center&quot; /&gt;&lt;p /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;p&gt;When the CSI number for June is released later this summer (and the end of August), check back to see if we saw this uptick before Case-Shiller reports it...&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p /&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;/p&gt; 
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    <pubDate>Wed, 25 Jun 2008 06:20:51 -0700</pubDate>
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    <title>Real Estate Data: South Jersey Edition</title>
    <link>http://www.altosresearch.com/blog/archives/366-Real-Estate-Data-South-Jersey-Edition.html</link>
    
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    <author>Scott Sambucci</author>
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    &lt;br /&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;br /&gt;
OK, aside from tomatoes, blueberries, Atlantic City, and rampant Philly sports team fans, South Jersey isn&#039;t really known for much. Where I (this is Scott writing today, not Mike...) grew up in Sicklerville, which was actually Cedar Brook but the post office was too small to have a mailmain, a trip to &amp;quot;The City&amp;quot; meant a visit to the Liberty Bell and Independence Hall in Philadelphia.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p /&gt;&lt;p /&gt;&lt;p /&gt;&lt;p /&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;br /&gt;But, maybe there&#039;s a little something in South Jersey when it comes to real estate....Moorestown (not to be confused with Morristown in North Jersey where no one acknowledges that there is a Moorestown) and Cherry Hill (&amp;quot;Exit 4 off the NJ Turnpike) are showing some nice appreciation this spring.  And Medford which now has more than the Indian Chief Restaurant (I worked there one summer in college) and the Medport Diner (great service!) has been stable over the past few months. &lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;br /&gt; [Side note: If you&#039;re ever caught speeding in Medford, ask for Officer Sambucci. If you&#039;re nice and wearing a seat belt, she might go easy on you....]&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;img src=&quot;http://charts.altosresearch.com/AltosCharts/NJ,NJ,NJ/MOORESTOWN,CHERRY+HILL,MEDFORD/a,a,a/median_price/a/a/m/e/sf/5624691.png&quot; /&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;p&gt;As for the Moorestown-Morristown Battle Royale, it looks like the South Jersey version is winning right now...&lt;/p&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;img src=&quot;http://charts.altosresearch.com/AltosCharts/NJ,NJ/MOORESTOWN,MORRISTOWN/a,a/median_price/a/a/m/e/sf/5624691.png&quot; /&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p /&gt;&lt;p /&gt;&lt;p /&gt;&lt;p /&gt; 
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    <pubDate>Fri, 20 Jun 2008 05:49:44 -0700</pubDate>
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    <title>Home Prices in Oakland vs. Berkeley</title>
    <link>http://www.altosresearch.com/blog/archives/364-Home-Prices-in-Oakland-vs.-Berkeley.html</link>
            <category>Bay Area real estate</category>
            <category>Housing and Real Estate Trends</category>
            <category>Housing Market Projections</category>
            <category>Real Estate Data</category>
            <category>Trend Charts</category>
    
    <comments>http://www.altosresearch.com/blog/archives/364-Home-Prices-in-Oakland-vs.-Berkeley.html#comments</comments>
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    <author>Mike Simonsen</author>
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    &lt;br /&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Checking out &lt;a href=&quot;http://myeastbayagent.com/foreclosures-reos/&quot; title=&quot;AK&quot;&gt;Andy Kaufman&#039;s blog&lt;/a&gt; this morning, I couldn&#039;t help but noticing the contrasting AltosCharts he&#039;s showing for Oakland and Berkeley California.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;p /&gt;Oakland of course is the bigger city, but these next-door-neighbors share some parts that are virtually indistinguishable from each other. There are some spectacular parts of Oakland and sketchy parts of Berkeley and vise versa. But look at the home price trends over the last year.&lt;p /&gt;&lt;div style=&quot;width: 360px;&quot; class=&quot;serendipity_imageComment_center&quot;&gt;&lt;div class=&quot;serendipity_imageComment_img&quot;&gt;&lt;!-- s9ymdb:292 --&gt;&lt;img width=&quot;360&quot; height=&quot;240&quot; src=&quot;http://www.altosresearch.com/blog/uploads/charts/oakland-berkeleyprice.png&quot; /&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div class=&quot;serendipity_imageComment_txt&quot;&gt;Real estate prices in Oakland and Berkeley, California as of mid-June 2008. Data for single family homes.&lt;/div&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;p /&gt;&lt;p&gt;Likewise look at the trends in inventory levels for the same to cities.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p /&gt;&lt;div class=&quot;serendipity_imageComment_center&quot; style=&quot;width: 360px;&quot;&gt;&lt;div class=&quot;serendipity_imageComment_img&quot;&gt;&lt;!-- s9ymdb:291 --&gt;&lt;img width=&quot;360&quot; height=&quot;240&quot; src=&quot;http://www.altosresearch.com/blog/uploads/charts/Oaklandberkeleyinv.png&quot; /&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div class=&quot;serendipity_imageComment_txt&quot;&gt;Real estate inventory levels of homes for sale in Oakland and Berkeley, California. Data for single family homes through mid-June 2008&lt;/div&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;p /&gt;&lt;p&gt;You couldn&#039;t have a clearer picture of the real estate pricing phenomenon we&#039;re seeing all over the country. It works like this:&lt;/p&gt;&lt;ul&gt;&lt;li&gt;Demand is off everywhere and everyone knows it. &lt;/li&gt;&lt;li&gt;So if you&#039;re a home buyer in the East Bay with good cash and good credit, you get your pick. In this case, Berkeley has generally better schools, more cachet, etc., so the buyers go there first. &lt;/li&gt;&lt;li&gt;There&#039;s enough demand to keep the market afloat. &lt;/li&gt;&lt;li&gt;If you don&#039;t have good cash and good credit, you get nothing. There is literally no spillover demand for Oakland. &lt;/li&gt;&lt;li&gt;A few years ago, a home buyer might look to the nicer neighborhoods in Oakland for additional inventory or a lesser school-premium price. Not the case any more.&lt;/li&gt;&lt;/ul&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;p&gt;Actually, I&#039;m sure we could dig through the zip code level data in Oakland and illustrate a similar phenomenon within the cities themselves. But this particular story jumped out at me this morning, so that&#039;s what gets covered.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;p&gt;Altos Links: &lt;a title=&quot;Oakland data&quot; href=&quot;http://www.altosresearch.com/research/CA/OAKLAND&quot;&gt;Oakland real estate data&lt;/a&gt;, &lt;a title=&quot;Berkeley data&quot; href=&quot;http://www.altosresearch.com/research/CA/BERKELEY&quot;&gt;Berkeley Real Estate Data&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p /&gt;&lt;p /&gt;&lt;p /&gt; 
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    <pubDate>Sat, 14 Jun 2008 13:18:02 -0700</pubDate>
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    <title>Hedge your real estate risk. For real this time!</title>
    <link>http://www.altosresearch.com/blog/archives/362-Hedge-your-real-estate-risk.-For-real-this-time!.html</link>
            <category>Case Shiller</category>
            <category>Economics</category>
            <category>Housing Market Projections</category>
            <category>Real Estate Data</category>
            <category>Real Estate Derivatives</category>
            <category>Real Estate Trends</category>
    
    <comments>http://www.altosresearch.com/blog/archives/362-Hedge-your-real-estate-risk.-For-real-this-time!.html#comments</comments>
    <wfw:comment>http://www.altosresearch.com/blog/wfwcomment.php?cid=362</wfw:comment>

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    <author>Mike Simonsen</author>
    <content:encoded>
    &lt;br /&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The other day, I &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.altosresearch.com/blog/archives/361-Trade-the-Housing-Market-like-Stocks.html&quot; title=&quot;Housing Derivatives&quot;&gt;highlighted the announcement&lt;/a&gt; from Bob Shiller&#039;s &lt;a href=&quot;http://macromarkets.com/index.shtml&quot; title=&quot;MacroMarchets&quot;&gt;MacroMarkets&lt;/a&gt; to list exchange traded funds on the housing market. I&#039;ve now had a chance to investigate more deeply and I&#039;m giddy like a schoolgirl. (Albeit an incredibly geeky schoolgirl, but giddy nonetheless.)&lt;/p&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;b&gt;First, some foundation as to why this matters.&lt;/b&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;In all businesses you have risks you can control and costs you can&#039;t: food, energy, interest rates, etc. For those costs, it makes sense to &lt;a href=&quot;http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hedge_%28finance%29&quot; title=&quot;Hedge&quot;&gt;hedge&lt;/a&gt;. Successful jet fuel hedges are a big reason Southwest Airlines is the strongest in the country.  Consumer products (e.g. cheaper airline tickets, wacky mortgages) get created on the foundation of these tools. (i.e. derivatives are a good thing.) &lt;a href=&quot;http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Speculation&quot; title=&quot;speculate&quot;&gt;Speculators &lt;/a&gt;can also participate - they add potential return to their portfolio where a hedger removes risk. Speculators create liquidity for the hedgers. (i.e. speculators are a good thing.) Financial derivatives, futures, options, swaps, etc. exist in &lt;b&gt;nearly every asset class&lt;/b&gt; to solve these problems for people.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;p&gt;Likewise, lots of people and companies have real estate &amp;quot;exposure&amp;quot;. This is a &lt;i&gt;$21 trillion &lt;/i&gt;asset class people. You should be able to hedge. Especially now, people realize housing prices don&#039;t always go up. But before 2006, there were &lt;b&gt;no financial products that let you hedge your real estate risk&lt;/b&gt;. And the only way to speculate was to buy investment property. &lt;/p&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;p&gt;In 2006, MacroMarkets introduced, on the Chicago Merc, housing derivatives. Unfortunately it turned out that there were practical limitations on the housing futures that prevented nearly all potential &amp;quot;end-users&amp;quot; from participating. (The big banks could trade amongst themselves, but how fun is that?) Namely, you need big capital requirements, special trading accounts, most of the time you need a broker-dealer on the other side of your trade, and the payoff is not significantly leveraged. Perhaps I was a bit harsh to characterize MacroMarkets as having &amp;quot;dropped the ball&amp;quot; but, &lt;b&gt;as of today, mere mortals basically still can&#039;t hedge their real estate risk.&lt;/b&gt; So how do you eliminate these hurdles?&lt;/p&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;b&gt;Enter Exchange Traded Funds&lt;/b&gt;&lt;br /&gt; &lt;/p&gt;&lt;p /&gt;&lt;p&gt;ETFs are securities that trade like stocks on stock exchanges. You can play the oil price trends or diversified stock market positions simply buy buying a single &amp;quot;stock&amp;quot;. &lt;br /&gt; &lt;/p&gt;&lt;p /&gt;&lt;p&gt;Here&#039;s how MacroMarkets&#039; new ETFs (&amp;quot;MacroShares&amp;quot; as they call them) work for the housing market:&lt;/p&gt;&lt;ul&gt;&lt;li&gt;The shares will list on the NYSE Arca. You can buy them from any brokerage account, like you would any stock.&lt;/li&gt;&lt;li&gt;They&#039;re designed to follow the Case Shiller Index - specifically the CSI 10-City Composite, the national index. more on the implications of this below.&lt;/li&gt;&lt;li&gt;The shares are issued in pairs:  ticker symbol &lt;b&gt;NYSE:UMM goes up&lt;/b&gt; when housing prices go up, &lt;b&gt;NYSE:DMM goes up &lt;/b&gt;when housing prices go down.&lt;/li&gt;&lt;li&gt;Like any stock, there&#039;s a market specialist so you always have price liquidity. You don&#039;t need to line up Goldman or Merril to take the other side of your bet.&lt;/li&gt;&lt;li&gt;The shares have a par value of $25/share so when the market is heavily bearish the DMMs will trade at a premium to the $25.&lt;/li&gt;&lt;li&gt;They have a 10-year horizon so you can play the longer term cycles of the housing market.&lt;/li&gt;&lt;li&gt;The underlying assets get parked in short term US Treasuries, so the securities actually return a quarterly dividend.&lt;/li&gt;&lt;li&gt;So the very easy trade is if you&#039;re &lt;b&gt;bearish, simply buy the DMMs&lt;/b&gt;. Think you&#039;re &lt;b&gt;seeing the bottom? Buy the UMMs&lt;/b&gt;. Ahh... simplicity.&lt;/li&gt;&lt;/ul&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;p&gt;Exercise some caution however, because there are nuances of how these things will behave. Namely:&lt;/p&gt;&lt;ul&gt;&lt;li&gt;They trade in pairs that offset each other. This means if home prices double, the &lt;b&gt;DMMs will go to zero&lt;/b&gt; and the security closes out. This happened in MacroMarkets oil MacroShares this year. &lt;a title=&quot;UCR&quot; href=&quot;http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=UCR&quot;&gt;AMEX:UCR&lt;/a&gt; and &lt;a title=&quot;DCR&quot; href=&quot;http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=DCR&quot;&gt;AMEX:DCR&lt;/a&gt;.  (Those securities have market values in &lt;a title=&quot;mm&quot; href=&quot;http://biz.yahoo.com/pz/080529/143721.html&quot;&gt;the billions&lt;/a&gt; now, so people are obviously adopting them as useful instruments.)&lt;/li&gt;&lt;li&gt;That means also that the &lt;b&gt;upside is limited to a 100% move&lt;/b&gt;. You can improve your return with margin leverage like any stock. &lt;/li&gt;&lt;li&gt;As these things approach close (because of A. time or B.100% market moves) the pricing will exhibit &lt;a href=&quot;http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Option_%28finance%29&quot; title=&quot;options&quot;&gt;optionality&lt;/a&gt;. They&#039;ll behave less like the market and more like an option.&lt;br /&gt;  &lt;/li&gt;&lt;/ul&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;b&gt;But is the Case Shiller Index Useful?&lt;/b&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;The remaining challenges for these products are oriented around the data. It&#039;s easy to bitch about the Case Shiller Index: doesn&#039;t include condos, or new construction, or flips, etc., etc., etc. Add in local market peculiarities and a lot of people wonder if the CSI actually measures the housing market.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;p&gt;My take on this argument is that &lt;b&gt;Case-Shiller is not useful for making a home purchase decision&lt;/b&gt;. But that doesn&#039;t preclude its usefulness in financial instruments. The fact is that the CSI 10-City Composite peaked in June 2006, and that&#039;s widely regarded as the national turning point for this housing market cycle.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;p&gt;The classic example of the &lt;b&gt;localness problem&lt;/b&gt; came when Brad Inman asked Bob Shiller on stage and his conference in Miami, &amp;quot;So let&#039;s say I bought a $2 million home in Sausalito in 2005. How would I hedge that?&amp;quot; Ill distill Shiller&#039;s 10-minute-Yale-finance-prof reply into two words for you: &amp;quot;You can&#039;t.&amp;quot;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;p&gt;With Given that these new securities are based on the CSI 10-City Composite, which is down strong in the last 12 months, they&#039;re not going to be helpful to hedge in &lt;b&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;http://www.altosresearch.com/research/CA/SAUSALITO&quot; title=&quot;Sausalito real estate data&quot;&gt;Sausalito, which is doing just fine&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/b&gt;, thank you.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;p&gt;But if you&#039;re a &lt;b&gt;reasonably diversified &lt;/b&gt;investor, brokerage, lender, builder, supplier, or yes, even if you&#039;re a speculator, this is a &lt;b&gt;great way to measure US housing&lt;/b&gt; broadly. Given success in the market, there&#039;s no reason why they can&#039;t list regional funds too at some point in the future, to get a little closer to home.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;p&gt;Finally, of course, the backward-looking nature of all typical housing market data presents opportunities for clients of the Altos real-time real estate data. Rock on.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;b&gt;This is big, folks. Huge.&lt;/b&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;I don&#039;t imagine that this innovation is going to save anyone from foreclosure. But we&#039;re looking at &lt;b&gt;the only effective way to manage your real estate assets without physically selling off properties&lt;/b&gt;. Think about that. Won&#039;t that be amazingly useful? &lt;/p&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;p&gt;Look for these to get listed sometime in Q3 or Q4 2008. You can be sure that we&#039;ll be watching, and of course publishing data to help you trade.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;More coverage: &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.portfolio.com/views/blogs/market-movers/2008/06/13/a-new-housing-etf-from-robert-shiller?rss=true&quot; title=&quot;Portfolio Salmon&quot;&gt;Here&lt;/a&gt;, &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.indexuniverse.com/sections/breaking-news/10/4202-macroshares-housing-.html&quot; title=&quot;Index Universe&quot;&gt;here&lt;/a&gt;, and &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1435967/000111650208000916/macrodn.htm&quot; title=&quot;prospectus&quot;&gt;here&lt;/a&gt;.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p /&gt;&lt;p /&gt; 
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    <pubDate>Fri, 13 Jun 2008 09:46:00 -0700</pubDate>
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